Low inventory supports prices vs. expectations of inventory buildup curbing upside room; SHFE tin may maintain sideways movement [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 24, 2025

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) opened at 262,020 yuan/mt today, slightly higher than the previous settlement price. During the session, it hit a high of 263,750 yuan/mt and a low of 261,900 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 263,100 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. Open interest fell by 740 lots to 16,800, indicating cautious market sentiment with strong wait-and-see sentiment from both bulls and bears.

Macro and Policy Disturbances: Delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and eased geopolitical risks in the Middle East (Iran agreed to a ceasefire) weakened safe-haven demand, while the US dollar index fluctuated at highs, pressuring the broader nonferrous metals sector.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract was capped by the 60-day moving average intraday, showing rangebound fluctuations. The decline in open interest reflected capital withdrawal and a wait-and-see approach, suggesting potential sideways movement in the short term, with support at 258,000 yuan/mt and resistance at 270,000 yuan/mt.

LME tin's most active contract closed at $32,650/mt, up 0.25% from the previous trading day.

The tin market is currently caught between supply contraction and weak demand, with low inventory supporting prices but inventory buildup expectations limiting upside room. SHFE tin may maintain a sideways movement within 258,000-270,000 yuan/mt in the short term, with attention on Myanmar's production resumptions and downstream restocking. LME tin prices are supported by overseas ore disruptions and low inventory, but macro risks could suppress price elasticity.